Stock Buy Signals
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Should you buy the stock Should you wait When you're investing, it's easy to get overwhelmed by too much information. How do you know what signals a buy How can you better understand the performance of a specific company's stock
Trading volume is the total number of stocks traded during a given period. This indicator reflects the overall activity of a specific security or the market itself. Many investors and analysts use the trading volume to identify and examine market trends and help make their trading decisions.
The number of options calls might also increase on a particular asset. Options calls are bets that the stock will rise by a specified date. A high number of options calls indicate not only a serious interest in the underlying share but a belief the share value will rise. This doesn't always mean you'll see good earnings.
Analysts compare intrinsic value to the share's current market price to determine whether it's overvalued or undervalued. This comparison helps investors calculate a margin of safety where the market price is below the intrinsic value. This cushion enables you to limit your risk if the stock is worth less than the intrinsic value.
Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures fell modestly early Friday, while Nasdaq futures rose slightly. FedEx (FDX) reported earnings late Thursday, signaling an FDX stock breakout. Bank stocks, notably First Republic, fell again after rebounding Thursday.
The stock market rally attempt had a strong session, reversing higher from morning lows. The Nasdaq led the way, fueled by big caps such as Apple stock, Microsoft (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA).
FRC stock, down over 36% intraday and up as much as 28%, closed up 10.3% to 34.38. Shares are off more than 70% this month. Several other regional banks moved higher as well, including Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) and Pacific Western Bank (PACW), often called PacWest.
The First Republic rescue report followed Wednesday night news that Credit Suisse (CS) would borrow up to $53.7 billion from the Swiss National Bank while also buying back debt. CS stock rose solidly intraday, but closed flat at 2.16. Shares hit a record low of 1.75 intraday Wednesday.
But bank stocks are sliding again early Friday. FRC stock fell more than 10% to around 30 after First Republic suspended its dividend last night. Wedbush downgraded FRC to neutral with a 5 price target, seeing a distressed sale as likely. Fellow California-based banks WAL and PACW stock also retreated.
FedEx earnings topped fiscal Q3 views on cost cuts but revenue fell short. The shipping giant raised full-year EPS guidance. FedEx stock soared 12% to about 229 early Friday, signaling a breakout. Shares rose 4.5% to 204.05 in Thursday's regular session, back above the 200-day and 50-day lines. FedEx stock is working on a 217.48 flat-base buy point, but investors could use a move above the March 9 intraday high of 213.31 as an early entry.
United Parcel Service (UPS) rose 3% in extended trade on FedEx earnings, suggesting a breakout or at least an early entry. Shares rose 1.9% to 187.90 on Thursday, rebounding from near the 50-day and 200-day lines and flirting with short-term resistance and a trendline going back a year. UPS stock is in a flat base with a 193.81 buy point within a yearlong consolidation.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% in Thursday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index popped 1.8%, with First Republic and AMD stock the top performers. The Nasdaq composite jumped 2.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 bounced 1.4%.
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) popped 2.7%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) gained 2.1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rallied 2.7%, with MSFT stock a major component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 4%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rebounded 1.9%. JPM stock is a key XLF holding, along with Citigroup stock and BofA. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) bounced 3.5%, with FRC stock, Western Alliance, PacWest and many larger regional names.
AAPL stock rose 1.9% on Thursday to 155.85, rebounding from its 21-day line, rising for the fourth straight day in above-average trade. The iPhone giant is not extended from its 200-day and 50-day lines. Shares, which had their best close in nearly six months, also came up to a trendline from early February. Apple stock has a 1,547.48 flat-base buy point.
MSFT stock popped 4.05% to 276.20, rising for a fourth straight day in heavy volume. Up 11% for the week, shares are close to the 276.86 flat-base buy point. But Microsoft is also getting close to being extended from the 200-day and 50-day lines. The relative strength line is already at a 52-week high, a bullish sign. The RS line, the blue line in the charts provided, tracks a stock's performance vs. the S&P 500 index.
WDAY stock rose 4% to 191.72, extending Monday's bounce from the 50-day line. Shares are still in range from a prior cup base, with a 184.60 buy point. Investors could use that or the bounce from the 50-day and 21-day lines. Workday stock is on track to have a new flat base with a 193.74 buy point after Friday's close.
LEN stock also advanced 4%, to 104.20. The rebound from near the 50-day line offered an early entry. The homebuilder has a 109.38 flat-base buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. On Wednesday, shares initially rose following strong Lennar earnings and guidance, but reversed lower. Thursday's move pushed above Wednesday's intraday high. The RS line for LEN stock is already at a 52-week high.
The Nasdaq composite rebounded strongly from a convergence of all the major averages, breaking a trendline from the early February highs. The Nasdaq 100, which includes Apple stock and Microsoft, decisively broke its trendline.
Investors could have added some exposure Thursday. But be careful of ramping up quickly in this volatile, news-driven market. There's also nothing wrong with waiting for a FTD before stepping back in. Many top stocks are still in range or moving into position.
For many stock traders, four letters can spell the difference between a winning and losing position. MACD (moving average convergence divergence) ranks among the key stock market indicators (along with moving averages and RSI) that traders use consistently in their analysis.
Another limitation of MACD is that it does not work as well at stock market tops or when market volatility is low. Therefore, if you use MACD on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.26% or the S&P 500 SPX, +1.44% in this current market, the signal is not as useful. That is why you should use MACD on individual stocks until volatility returns to the major market indexes.
One of the most powerful (but often ignored) additions to the MACD is the MACD-Histogram. Developed by Thomas Aspray in 1986, this oscillator is used to gauge momentum. It is a separate program that should be available on your charting package. Traders who use this feature typically view both MACD and the histogram on a stock chart simultaneously.
The histogram is a series of bar graphs at the bottom of the stock screen. If the bars move above the zero line, it means the underlying stock (or index) is gaining strength, i.e., momentum. If the bars move below the zero line, the stock or index is losing strength.
If you see the index prices as well as stock prices move higher, but MACD turns lower, that is a red flag. In addition, if you see the MACD-Histogram changing colors and the bars getting shorter, that confirms momentum is weakening (but confirm this against RSI or stochastics).
TNT, a company providing businesses with services for their express delivery and mail needs \"has had a strong decline in prices in the last quarter of 2008,\" Nikken told CNBC. For the most part the stock is trading sideways and the barriers that TNT is trading between are 13 and 16 euros.
\"The pressure on this stock is to the upside, even though it might test the recent 12.75 euro low,\" he added. Nikken said he is expecting a spike in the stock and suggested that now is a good time to get in.
Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand to compensate them for the risks they take.
Risk premiums vary a great deal over time in response to new market information or changes in the economic environment or even changes in investor sentiment. When risk premiums increase or decrease, stocks and bonds and other assets have to be priced again. Investors react to the changes gradually and this creates trends.
First, a look at the long-term cyclical trend in gold: Buy signals occur when the 13-week moving average trend line (blue line) crosses above the 34-week moving average trend line (red line). Sell signals occur when the 13-week moving average trend line (blue line) crosses below the slower moving 34-week moving average trend line (red line).
Trade Signals started after a colleague asked me if I could share my thoughts (trade signals) with him. A number of years ago, I found that putting pen to paper has really helped me in my investment management process and I hope that this research is of value to you in your investment process.
Take the example of TCS, which has done three buybacks and all via the tender offer route since 2017. In the four months starting with the month when board meet was announced to consider buyback proposal (February 2017, June 2018 and October 2020), the stock was up by around 17, 26 and 24 per cent for buyback of around 2.85, 1.99 and 1.42 per cent of outstanding shares respectively. The upside almost exactly matches price difference between the share price on the date of intimation of board meet to consider buyback and the buyback price. 781b155fdc